Wednesday, July 17, 2013

A cable punt

Although Indian by origin, I am a proud British citizen. Proud for a reason, not just because I got naturalised. The reason being the open culture. The only major (or even minor) central bank to appoint a foreign citizen as the governor. I mean many do not even allow you to apply if you are not a citizen. But not the case for the Bank of England. A country that would probably sell the Big Ben if she had to.

So what does Carney really bring to the table? Dovish expectations fought by hawkish rhetoric, the market is overall in a mess. It probably doesn't matter. We look at the charts and say, we are near a tipping point. Sell with a stop at 1.5310 targeting 1.5150 or we just flip to bullish if the market moves above 1.5310. But in this scenario of higher prices we likely revisit this post.

Why we want to sell is because the USD is inherently bid. If US yields are to eventually rise, which we think they do, then for GBP/USD the USD leg of the trade should awaken and cable should fall lower. So we pick our levels based on market commitment (1.5310 is where the last significant selling was seen) and trade with that.



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